Predictions for 2008

Given that it is almost the end of the year, I thought that it was probably the right time to jot down some thoughts and share them around.

Incidentially I did think that I had Delicious-ed all the 2007 predictions so that I could go back and see just how far off the mark we all were, but I appear not to have been too organized a year ago (from memory I think that the key word was Widget, when actually Facebook or Social Networking would have to be my word/words of the year, anyhow...)

Anyway, for what they are worth here are my top 3 things to look out for in 2008:

1. Monetization of UGC
Whether the content is words, static images or moving pictures, 2008 is the year that creators get savvy to the fact that they have helped line the pockets of the likes of YouTube and Flickr. We are doing some work with Metro newspaper, helping them in the beta-phase of a new site called MeView. It's an interesting concept. You upload original video content, you then choose whether you want to add pre-roll advertising to the clip. You get to watch a selction of 10' thumbnail clips and you choose the one that you want to add onto the front of your content. Then for every download you share in the CPM/CPT advertising revenue. Suddenly you move from being simply a content creator, to digital media planner and also content promoter as it is in your financial best interest to drive as many people as possible to view the clip. It's also in the best interests of the agencies who produce the pre-roll advertising to make them as good as possible otherwise no-one will choose their adverts!
Expect to see more Monetization examples in 2008.

2. Sideload Culture
This has already started, but 2008 is going to be the year when Sideloading goes mainstream. We want to be able to move content from one device to another easily, we are starting to expect that we can take pictures on a blackberry and sideload them straight to a social networking site like Facebook.
(I hope) This is the year when it all becomes easier.

3. Augmented Reality
I love this from the Economist: " In the early days of the internet, the idea that it represented an entirely different realm, distinct from the real world, was seized upon by both advocates and critics of the new technology..both groups were wrong of course. The internet has not turned out to be a thing apart...some of the most exciting uses of the internet rely on coupling it with the real world."
The internet is an overlay to the everyday phsycial world that we inhabit, not a separate entity. 2008 is the year of the web being connected and complementary.

Agree, disagre - more to add? Let's get the prediction ball rolling and then come January let's remember that as Alan Key said: "The only way to predict the future is to build it."

Comments

[Asi]

very nice indeed.

re the monetization of UGC, I've read yesterday that metacafe recently gave $1 million to users for their original content of which the top earner received $80K - thats not bad.
And Revver are doing something similar although as far as I know, not on the same scale.

Let's hope the rest will follow!

Happy new year - keep up the great stuff

A.

[Fiona]

Hi Amelia,

I agree with online and offline complimenting each other. There definitely needs to be a balance.

Thanks
Fiona

[John Dodds]

Widgets was a pretty good prediction for 2007. Happy Christmas.

[Damiano]

I'm wary of the monetizising of UGC. I just think the only way is going to be contextual banners around the content. Nothing that's going intrude on or in the content. Just not sure about pre-rolls. Can't be bothered otherwise. I can always find it instantaneously somewhere else for free through the power of search.

As for sideloading look at this great web vid about flock, the web browser - opens your eyes to what is possible so easily now. Imagine being able t do all these various sideloading tricks so quickly? Then imagine if we could do all this so quickly what will we all, and I mean everyone with broadband do on top of this? Fusing all these shortcuts together what will be created, that will be comletely new?
http://www.techcrunch20.com/2007/presenter.php?presenter=2

As for augmented reality see this link - This is so simple and so obvious. The web video isn't working because the site is getting s much traffic but you will get the idea. http://www.mvs.net/index.html#video_1

For off/online see this piece I wrote http://nitmesh.typepad.com/blog/2007/08/onoffing---onof.html

I would add social networking and video fusing on all social networking sites because of sideloading with mobile (we see it with photos already) or I should say interlinking with networks like we are beginning to see on Bebo. With the iphone2 3G (and I promise you the explosion of iphone clones which will swamp the market in 2008) you will see hopefully a bigger screen with more touch engagement with the wifi net and less through carrier connection although also an spike in touch interactive mobile ads and games too. This leads to my pipedream of FREE Wifi for all. Being at the digital literacy task force conference at C4 on Horseferry Road recently where politicians and educators debated how to educate the youth and general population about digital the answer is clearly to build and give away free wifi The educational, commercial, productivity benefits would so so out way
the cost to the nation. It's going to be free one day, why not make it happen as soon as possible?

Adblock and safariblock apps will become a major problem for advertisers. The apps that completely remove banner ads. They make such a huge difference in how you absorb content as there's no visual irritation at all.

[Damiano]

Thought you'd like this Amelia, an aggregation of all predictions being made around the net!
http://www.darrenherman.com/2007/12/16/the-digital-media-internet-uber-2008-prediction-list/

Merry Xmas
Damiano

[Damiano]

John Battelle's predictions on everyting and advertising industry
http://www.podtech.net/scobleshow/technology/1718/john-battelle-on-2007-predictions-and-advertising-industry

[Tom Hopkins]

I predict you get into the top 5! Did you see this: http://scampblog.blogspot.com/2007/12/ad-blog-charts-for-december.html

Happy new year.

[Lee]

augmented reality seems to be the hot button, no?

as usual, william gibson stumbled across it first in an interesting way in his latest book, spook country. (good place to start: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spook_country)

it's a good read.

it centers around the confluence of locative technology + art + everyday reality along with some other subterfuge and cyber-noir fiction.

what's also interesting (more than the novel?) has been the creation by gibson fans of the fictional magazine in the book before the book was even published. (http://nodemagazine.com/)

happy 2008!

[sean miller]

Three cheers for sideloading. And open social. And easy comment tracking.

Another good quote on the future is william gibson "the future is here it's just not widely distributed yet."

Thanks for the predictions and congrats your blog anniversary!

[Laurence]

I thought I'd take your advice and start commenting ;0)

2 more books with interesting augmented reality themes are Noon's Vurt and Stephenson's The Diamond Age. I recommend them both. They're great.

[trendsspotter]

hi I thought you might be interested in the work we've done with 2008 all the predictions for 2008
http://www.trendsspotting.com/blog/?page_id=302
enjoy